Adam Lawrence, economist and portfolio landlord with 700+ properties, returns to break down what’s really coming for the UK property market in 2026. This episode is a grounded analysis of capital flows, interest rates, regulation, and where opportunity is quietly shifting.
If you’re a developer, investor, or landlord trying to position yourself for the next cycle, this episode offers critical context you won’t get from mainstream commentary.
2026 property predictions
Adam believes 2026 won’t begin slowly or cautiously. In fact, his view is that the year is likely to start with a bang.
Why? Because property markets don’t move instantly, they lag. Interest rate changes take time to work their way through lending decisions, buyer confidence, and pricing. Historically, it takes around six months for a rate change to fully impact behaviour.
That means decisions being made now, by banks, institutions, and investors, are shaping what we’ll see play out across 2026.
Interest rates
One of the most important nuances Adam highlights is the difference between base rates and real-world borrowing costs.
While base rates are expected to come down, Adam is not convinced this will translate cleanly into cheaper five-year fixed mortgages. Lenders price long-term fixes on future risk, not just today’s rate environment.
For investors and developers, this matters because:
- Debt may remain tighter than expected
- Stress testing won’t suddenly loosen
- Cash flow assumptions still need realism
In short, don’t build strategies that rely on cheap money returning quickly
Institutional money is moving
One of the most revealing insights from the episode is where institutional capital is starting to look next.
Large pools of money are chasing yield, and they’re struggling to find it in:
- Build-to-rent (BTR)
- New-build single-family housing
Returns in these sectors have compressed. As a result, Adam believes institutional investors are increasingly turning their attention to second-hand residential stock.
This has major implications with increased competition for existing housing, upward pressure on prices in “unfashionable” stock and new exit routes for developers working in refurb, conversion, and trading
Property demand is more resilient than people think
Adam uses a simple but powerful analogy: property is like petrol.
Even when prices rise, demand doesn’t disappear. People still need somewhere to live. While higher prices may reduce discretionary demand, core housing demand remains stubbornly strong.
This helps explain why:
- Prices don’t collapse as easily as predicted
- Supply shortages continue to support values
- Inflation quietly props up nominal house prices
Watch the full episode on YouTube
This blog only scratches the surface of Adam Lawrence’s analysis.
If you want the full context, deeper reasoning behind his predictions and a clearer picture of what the next decade in property may look like watch the full episode now.
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